According to Philip Giraldi, at the end of July Defense Secretary Leon Panetta traveled to Israel to get a commitment from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Iran BEFORE AMERICA’S ELECTIONS. He did not get it.
Some intelligence analysts in Washington believe Netanyahu will attack Iran in October. The weather will be suitable and Obama will be “squeezed” due to the election and his need for Jewish support to support the Israelis in their attack.
Giraldi believes an equal number of analysts believe he is bluffing.
Creepy 50/50 odds.
Some analysts believe Israeli leaders are encouraged by Romney’s full out support of Israel but at the same time are wary of Romney’s capacity to politically spout what is most opportunistically useful at the moment and later renege.
Philip Weiss is convinced that if Israel does attack Iran the US media and Congress will take its side. He agrees with Zaki Shalom, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University who sees a desperate Obama administration trying to keep Israel from attacking Iran BEFORE THE ELECTION. [my caps thruout] Shalom asserts:
It would probably be no exaggeration to say that the prime minister is going around with the feeling that the political future of President Obama is to some extent, perhaps even a large extent, in the Prime Minister’s hands. An Israeli action at the present time would almost certainly expose the president to serious criticism for his fecklessness, which forced Israel, a close ally of the United States, to act alone. Various segments in the US administration, especially the Congress, will make demands to support Israel.
All this, when the consequences of an Israeli action for the stagnant US economy are liable to be serious. Under these circumstances, it is not inconceivable that the Prime Minister believes that currently, he can “squeeze” from the president far-reaching commitments in Israel’s favor in exchange for Israeli restraint on Iran.
This compensation will presumably be mainly in the areas of defense and the economy. Israel, the prime minister can argue, is prepared to take a strategic risk on the Iranian issue, if it knows that the US administration will support it and will be prepared to give it aid that under normal circumstances, it would not be prepared to give...
According to Shalom if Israel attacks Iran PRIOR TO THE NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION, Obama will be very reluctant to criticize Israel openly because members of Congress, the media, Jewish leaders and Republican leaders will demand that the Obama administration support Israel.
Shalom stresses, “The Obama administration cannot ignore such expressions of support IN THE PERIOD LEADING UP TO THE ELECTIONS.”
Bruce Wolman writes:
It's a win-win for Netanyahu. If he is not serious about attacking Iran, he still gets the max from the USA with his blackmailing. If he is serious, he puts Obama in a box such that he has to rescue the IDF. Netanyahu doesn't even have to decide between the two until the day of the election. He can just keep us all guessing....
Wolman believes that Obama is not in a box, or doesn’t have to be, and could take on Netanyahu and AIPAC and win. The military would support him. Along with millions of American citizens. Remember many of the 80 million who elected him predominately for his "end the wars" platform?
Wolman continues:
... But Obama is not such a risk taker. He is a campaign machine, nothing more. If he has an ideology, it is moderate Republican economic values. If he faced Netanyahu head on, a lot of non-Jewish Americans would support him. There is war fatigue in this country and in the military. But the longer he waits, the more trapped Netanyahu has him.
If Obama had led on this issue, he could have used it to his political advantage. Obama could easily parry the statements of Republican leaders, and he is not going to get the Christian Zionists to vote for him anyhow. Even many Jews do not want us to go to war with Iran. But Obama won't take this risk, because he doesn't want to upset his Jewish donors.
So what can someone such as Obama -- uber POLITICAL gamesman, never statesman -- do? According to Wolman he will keep on validating Israel’s Iran war-mongering talking points in an effort to appease the Israeli government and the Israel-Firsters. Tragically, from that slippery slope Obama will have trouble taking an anti-war stance and a strong belated stance with Israel when and if it comes to an actual attack of Israel on Iran during this fast-upcoming precious and troublesome PRE-ELECTION WINDOW. Obama is that run by ambition and the appeasement of those said American Jewish donors.
How sad that political opportunism to win an election is so weighty in the decision for the US to endorse and probably join in with one more illegitimate war and against a country that is so strongly allied with Russia and China. War addiction and election ambition come together for a perfect storm, yet again. Basic human welfare so not a priority.
So fasten your seat belts in case WAR WITH IRAN is a cruel and insane upcoming PRE-ELECTION motivated October surprise.
[cross-posted at correntewire and sacramento for democracy]
--------------
It's about time that someone had the moxie to tell Israel to get stuffed. If the US said, "sit down and STFU or American aid to Israel stops this instant", they'd sit down and STFU. Without the US (and other) aid, Israel is history.
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It is most probable that Israel will not attack Iran. All the leading military experts in both the USA and Israel believe it would be a disaster. Obama is a weak president totally responsive to his financial sponsors so I cannot say what he might do but I guess that the American electorate will be in a quandary since neither candidate demonstrates any backbone or common sense.
What difference would it make if Benny N attacked Iran on October 15 or November 15? I think none because: 1.) It would be ineffective in delaying Iran's nuclear weapons development, 2.) Israel would be condemned by the EU and the rest of the world but retain the support of the US Government. By treaty we pay 1.5 billion a year in military assistance for the largest forward proxy air force and tank divisions in the Mid East. as they say at the DoD, Israel is the largest US Aircraft Carrier in the fleet. 3.) The fragile economy of Iran is a greater pressure point for regime change than any overt military action. 4.) Overt military action from Israel (interpreted by Iranians as a proxy for the US and Britain) will solidify internal political support for the current regime. 5.) Benny N. understands this but he has to rattle sabers to maintain his own fragile political coalition at home.
**Remember many of the 80 million who elected him predominately for his "end the wars" platform?**
Would you care to name them? My sources tell me that he got fewer than 70 million votes total from people of all persuasions.
Would you care to name them? My sources tell me that he got fewer than 70 million votes total from people of all persuasions.
The one certainty about the existence of IsrealHell in Palestine is that there will never be peace. Never. United States' costs in truth, blood and treasure for the maintenance and promotion of IsrealHell in Palestine had proven to be yet another localized disaster, another result of militarism inherent to the existence, maintenance of capitalUSt$ ideology and JudeoChristian righteoUSness... a zionist amoeba whose boundaries with its environment is a devolving, disastrous one.
fwiw - InTrade is currently running at a 27% chance of either a US or Israel air strike against Iran before Dec 31, 2012. Money to be made if you think you think the bombing is imminent. And Arthur's right about the vote count. Obama got 69.5 M votes.
sky, thanks. our foreign codependency with Israel has been horrifying! We are giving $3 billion a year for military aid to Israel each year. The settlements keep happening. The war-mongering keeps happening. The horrifying restrictions for Gaza continue. appreciate your comment.
Jan, I agree especially re your backbone remark. I think Israel is certainly capable of attacking Iran before the election. Even if they don't they are in a blackmail position to extracting placation from Obama. Our intrusion into war in Syria is becoming more and more intense. But as you say, both parties are dangerously loyal to Israel.
best, libby
Jan, I agree especially re your backbone remark. I think Israel is certainly capable of attacking Iran before the election. Even if they don't they are in a blackmail position to extracting placation from Obama. Our intrusion into war in Syria is becoming more and more intense. But as you say, both parties are dangerously loyal to Israel.
best, libby
jmac, I think it would make a difference in whether Obama went all in endorsing and joining into the war for the sake of Obama's Jewish donors as said above, and also a pro-Israel Congress and media. I find that rather terrifying to have so much unconditional support for another country, the support of which takes away from our own citizenry in such dire shape.
Your common sense does not matter to Netanyahu and the war-mongering Israeli leadership and the pro-Jewish bubble that seems to hold Washington DC. Yes, our government has decided that it is win/win the relationship with Israel. Whether it is or it isn't saber rattling, it is making the Obama administration squirm and placate either before and behind closed doors from what I am reading as above. The mess in Syria is causing horrifying problems in the Middle East and an attack on Iran will increase the bloodbaths going on and the regional instability. You would think the wise choice would be to back off and to help resolve the horror of Syria but that is not the choice the US has made and if they pretend to help Syria we know damn well it won't be in good faith. It will be for installing a puppet in there anti-Iran. The US via its CIA and proxy Arab countries willing to work with and enable Iraq and other foreign units of al Qaeda for a temporary pragmatic period to get regime change no matter how many thousands and thousands of Syrians are dying or being displaced is not a priority. Ends justifies whatever vile means. It is a repetition of what we did in Afghanistan, staking the Taliban as leverage. And then there comes the possibility of dark, unintended consequences that are never a consideration apparently either.
Arthur, I stand corrected. Popular vote for Dems for 2008 69,498,516. ("Can you name them?" Going for droll, there?)
anti-terrorUS$, thanks for commenting. The US is no longer capable of "good faith" diplomacy. Exploitation of the "humanitarian intervention" ploy. Our arms sales monstrously eclipse those of any other country. We have managed to bully and corrupt and bribe and threaten countries into coalition building to do illegitimate nation-razing for "regime change" that has nothing to do with the welfare and status of the citizens but for ulterior motives of the ruling class global syndicate. Everything is politicized and politicized for the sake of corporate and/or pro-Israel agendas.
abrawang, gallows humor over a potential war with Iran doesn't do it for me.
best, libby
Your common sense does not matter to Netanyahu and the war-mongering Israeli leadership and the pro-Jewish bubble that seems to hold Washington DC. Yes, our government has decided that it is win/win the relationship with Israel. Whether it is or it isn't saber rattling, it is making the Obama administration squirm and placate either before and behind closed doors from what I am reading as above. The mess in Syria is causing horrifying problems in the Middle East and an attack on Iran will increase the bloodbaths going on and the regional instability. You would think the wise choice would be to back off and to help resolve the horror of Syria but that is not the choice the US has made and if they pretend to help Syria we know damn well it won't be in good faith. It will be for installing a puppet in there anti-Iran. The US via its CIA and proxy Arab countries willing to work with and enable Iraq and other foreign units of al Qaeda for a temporary pragmatic period to get regime change no matter how many thousands and thousands of Syrians are dying or being displaced is not a priority. Ends justifies whatever vile means. It is a repetition of what we did in Afghanistan, staking the Taliban as leverage. And then there comes the possibility of dark, unintended consequences that are never a consideration apparently either.
Arthur, I stand corrected. Popular vote for Dems for 2008 69,498,516. ("Can you name them?" Going for droll, there?)
anti-terrorUS$, thanks for commenting. The US is no longer capable of "good faith" diplomacy. Exploitation of the "humanitarian intervention" ploy. Our arms sales monstrously eclipse those of any other country. We have managed to bully and corrupt and bribe and threaten countries into coalition building to do illegitimate nation-razing for "regime change" that has nothing to do with the welfare and status of the citizens but for ulterior motives of the ruling class global syndicate. Everything is politicized and politicized for the sake of corporate and/or pro-Israel agendas.
abrawang, gallows humor over a potential war with Iran doesn't do it for me.
best, libby
i take some comfort in saying to americans that you get the government you deserve, but netanyahu has the power to destroy the world economy and might do it as an election ploy.
the grip aipac has on america can only be massive and mutual corruption of congress and knesset. zionism has managed to make the jewish people the figures of contempt their enemies held them to be before the holocaust and the fear and hatred zionism has created in the middle east looks to be beyond possibility of peaceful resolution.
the grip aipac has on america can only be massive and mutual corruption of congress and knesset. zionism has managed to make the jewish people the figures of contempt their enemies held them to be before the holocaust and the fear and hatred zionism has created in the middle east looks to be beyond possibility of peaceful resolution.
The Jews have a long history of being mistreated by the world and along with that, great scholarship and intellectual and humane attainments way out of proportion to their numbers. Perhaps because of their own mistreatment they rallied continuously throughout history to the side of the underdog and that is why the behavior of Israel is so extraordinary. Out of their historically justified paranoia they have created this nation which is proclaimed safe ground for Jews and ironically it is one of the most dangerous places on Earth. The only way they could establish this assumedly absolute refuge from the centuries long persecutions was to clean out the previous inhabitants. That is clearly stated in the literature of Zionism. But to perform this cleansing they had to violate the most honored traditions of the Jewish people of basic decency and humane behavior. One of the standard propagandistic accusations they have against honest Jews who are horrified at the treatment of the Palestinians is that they are self hating Jews. It has struck me that the overwhelming hatred and contempt many of the Israelis have for the Palestinians is rooted in the deep feeling that many of the Jews have of the open violations of the long wonderful traditions the Jewish people have had for centuries for deep humanity and sympathy for persecuted people. There is a monstrous guilt the Israelis must hold within themselves for their inhuman brutal behavior. Therefore they are the self hating Jews who despise the Palestinians for making them into the vicious brutes the whole world clearly sees.
Once again, the prophet speaks!
Just got an E-mail from Roots Action on the subject; thought you would want to know if you don't already.
"Join Daniel Ellsberg opposing attack on Iran"
http://act.rootsaction.org/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=6573
It's a petition and they're most of the way to their target so they'll need a new target after getting my signature and a few others.
"Join Daniel Ellsberg opposing attack on Iran"
http://act.rootsaction.org/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=6573
It's a petition and they're most of the way to their target so they'll need a new target after getting my signature and a few others.
Let us hope that what is said publicly is domestic politics and what is said privately is realpolitik. My prognosis: If Netanyahu attacks Iran before the election the stupid bastard will be on his own.
I'm w Jan to the extent that I doubt Isr will attack in October and as to our and their military.
I went to high school w both Netanyahu brothers; this latest from Bibi is a reflection of how he was as a teen, often allowing bluster to offset his clear intelligence.
(Yoni, btw, the one who died at Entebbe, Uganda, was, in high school, a loner and not overtly political as Benyamin was. Yoni clearly had found a home in the IDF.)
Rated for bringing together interesting voices.
(The father was a visiting professor in Philadelphia in the mid-late 60s and Yonatan and Benyamin Netanyahu attended the high school I attended.
I went to high school w both Netanyahu brothers; this latest from Bibi is a reflection of how he was as a teen, often allowing bluster to offset his clear intelligence.
(Yoni, btw, the one who died at Entebbe, Uganda, was, in high school, a loner and not overtly political as Benyamin was. Yoni clearly had found a home in the IDF.)
Rated for bringing together interesting voices.
(The father was a visiting professor in Philadelphia in the mid-late 60s and Yonatan and Benyamin Netanyahu attended the high school I attended.
You see, the Israelis know that if Israel attacks, that won't play well on so many levels. It is in Israel's best interest for the US to attack Iran. I don't think the talks between the US and Israel is about "letting" Israel attack. R
While I agree with most of what Jan Sand said, it is also a reminder of the elephant in the room: Where is Europe? If anyone is responsible for much of the suffering of the Jews, it is the Europeans.
While I agree with most of what Jan Sand said, it is also a reminder of the elephant in the room: Where is Europe? If anyone is responsible for much of the suffering of the Jews, it is the Europeans.
Abrawang, I checked out the odds on Intrade, and unfortunately they do not have a contract specifying an attack against Iran by Oct. 31. They have one for Sept. 30 (only 3.1 percent chance) and, as you say, Dec. 31 (it jumps to 27.6 percent). However, Intrade speculators are betting that it there is more than a 40 percent chance by the end of next year. So the consensus doesn't seem to be that it will necessarily be timed to the elections, but rather that the chances grow stronger as time passes, regardless of the elections. Of course, the Intrade consensus could be wrong. They were betting 3-to-1 that Obamacare would be declared unconstitutional.
al, I agree re the power of netanyahu ever since Congress bipartisanly genuflected when he came to town. Okay even before. You write and I concur:
"the grip aipac has on america can only be massive and mutual corruption of congress and knesset. zionism has managed to make the jewish people the figures of contempt their enemies held them to be before the holocaust and the fear and hatred zionism has created in the middle east looks to be beyond possibility of peaceful resolution."
Jan, wow. I think there is something collectively pathological going on with those Jewish people who are locked in a Palestinian-hating bubble and those who are lost to the bigger, more embracing unconditional support for any Israeli-decision, Zionism-based or not, bubble, and the unconditional prostitution of American politicians to Jewish war-mongering donors. I also think there is something collectively pathological with Americans so profoundly learned helpless to letting these violently amoral corporate legacy parties, BOTH Dem and Republican, defy human decency in greater and greater degrees with each passing year, the deadliness of their decisions increasing exponentially.
As for your intense comment:
"The Jews have a long history of being mistreated by the world and along with that, great scholarship and intellectual and humane attainments way out of proportion to their numbers. Perhaps because of their own mistreatment they rallied continuously throughout history to the side of the underdog and that is why the behavior of Israel is so extraordinary. Out of their historically justified paranoia they have created this nation which is proclaimed safe ground for Jews and ironically it is one of the most dangerous places on Earth."
There is a pathology among victims too often to over-identify with their oppressors or to when grown up replicate the behavior of their oppressors. You would think the brutalization they or their ancestors had to endure would foster empathy. I agree that a justified paranoia is understandable but very dangerous to them, their descendants and their global community.
You go on:
"The only way they could establish this assumedly absolute refuge from the centuries long persecutions was to clean out the previous inhabitants. That is clearly stated in the literature of Zionism. But to perform this cleansing they had to violate the most honored traditions of the Jewish people of basic decency and humane behavior."
The label "self-hating" given over to those who dare to defy an unconditionally accepting tribalism is Orwellian (along with so much these days). Yes, propaganda, a really vile level of it.
This is an interesting take for sure. You write:
" There is a monstrous guilt the Israelis must hold within themselves for their inhuman brutal behavior. Therefore they are the self hating Jews who despise the Palestinians for making them into the vicious brutes the whole world clearly sees."
Wow, Jan. Very thoughtful and resonating, what you have written.
Heidi, Jan is indeed prophetic!
Zachd, thanks for the petition. I will be on it!!!
Chicken Maaan, I don't think he will be alone. I think Obama will sell out morality and sanity for election results. And I think that is because of such intense unconditional cronyism and pro-Jewish group think among our media, our Congress, and so many of the Jewish political donors and voters. Not all American Jewish voters, Thank God!!! But enough to make Obama make one more amoral choice for us and our nation and for more people to die and more money be spent on gratuitous violence.
Thanks so much for your comment, JW. Enlightening.
Thoth, points taken! Though I think there is a lot of guilt on the part of many countries especially the US re the horror of the Holocaust which has cut Israel some very dangerous slack over the years to perpetrate its own crimes against humanity. thanks for your comment.
best, libby
"the grip aipac has on america can only be massive and mutual corruption of congress and knesset. zionism has managed to make the jewish people the figures of contempt their enemies held them to be before the holocaust and the fear and hatred zionism has created in the middle east looks to be beyond possibility of peaceful resolution."
Jan, wow. I think there is something collectively pathological going on with those Jewish people who are locked in a Palestinian-hating bubble and those who are lost to the bigger, more embracing unconditional support for any Israeli-decision, Zionism-based or not, bubble, and the unconditional prostitution of American politicians to Jewish war-mongering donors. I also think there is something collectively pathological with Americans so profoundly learned helpless to letting these violently amoral corporate legacy parties, BOTH Dem and Republican, defy human decency in greater and greater degrees with each passing year, the deadliness of their decisions increasing exponentially.
As for your intense comment:
"The Jews have a long history of being mistreated by the world and along with that, great scholarship and intellectual and humane attainments way out of proportion to their numbers. Perhaps because of their own mistreatment they rallied continuously throughout history to the side of the underdog and that is why the behavior of Israel is so extraordinary. Out of their historically justified paranoia they have created this nation which is proclaimed safe ground for Jews and ironically it is one of the most dangerous places on Earth."
There is a pathology among victims too often to over-identify with their oppressors or to when grown up replicate the behavior of their oppressors. You would think the brutalization they or their ancestors had to endure would foster empathy. I agree that a justified paranoia is understandable but very dangerous to them, their descendants and their global community.
You go on:
"The only way they could establish this assumedly absolute refuge from the centuries long persecutions was to clean out the previous inhabitants. That is clearly stated in the literature of Zionism. But to perform this cleansing they had to violate the most honored traditions of the Jewish people of basic decency and humane behavior."
The label "self-hating" given over to those who dare to defy an unconditionally accepting tribalism is Orwellian (along with so much these days). Yes, propaganda, a really vile level of it.
This is an interesting take for sure. You write:
" There is a monstrous guilt the Israelis must hold within themselves for their inhuman brutal behavior. Therefore they are the self hating Jews who despise the Palestinians for making them into the vicious brutes the whole world clearly sees."
Wow, Jan. Very thoughtful and resonating, what you have written.
Heidi, Jan is indeed prophetic!
Zachd, thanks for the petition. I will be on it!!!
Chicken Maaan, I don't think he will be alone. I think Obama will sell out morality and sanity for election results. And I think that is because of such intense unconditional cronyism and pro-Jewish group think among our media, our Congress, and so many of the Jewish political donors and voters. Not all American Jewish voters, Thank God!!! But enough to make Obama make one more amoral choice for us and our nation and for more people to die and more money be spent on gratuitous violence.
Thanks so much for your comment, JW. Enlightening.
Thoth, points taken! Though I think there is a lot of guilt on the part of many countries especially the US re the horror of the Holocaust which has cut Israel some very dangerous slack over the years to perpetrate its own crimes against humanity. thanks for your comment.
best, libby
Thoth,I disagree,not so many decades after WWII.
Basically,yes .
Basically,yes .
In examining the Israeli psyche I have come to the odd conclusion that the entire nation has adopted the viewpoint of the suicide bomber, but in a most peculiar way.
In the Mel Brooks film “Blazing Saddles” there is one scene where the sheriff is threatened with hanging by an angry mob. The sheriff, in self-defense, pulls out his gun and holds it to his head and threatens to commit suicide if the mob tries to hang him and the mob backs off. This is highly comic, but in real life this is frightening insanity.
This is the Masada psychology brought up to date where a group of ancient besieged Jews committed suicide rather than be captured by the Romans. The Israelis, according to reports, have an estimated 200 nuclear warheads at their disposal. I have not heard as to whether they are fission or fusion weapons but either one represents a standing threat to all life on Earth. There are other nations, of course, with many more dangerous nuclear weapons but these nations have been able to restrain their use for many decades and their status in no way compares to the psychological volatility of Israel who maintains, through its consistent aggressive agenda, an extremely delicate balance and strong prejudice to use violence rather than diplomacy to maintain their existence and stability. I have read statements by Israelis that, if the country is threatened by overwhelming force, there would be no hesitation to loose the entire nuclear capability at the world as a kind of apocalyptic revenge. This kind of threat to hold the entire world hostage for its existence is pathological insanity and, since it is not an empty threat, I doubt the world can endure its existence indefinitely. Israel is, after all, a rather small target for a determined atomic power bent on removing this nuisance forever as a threat to all life on Earth. The Jews have a reputation for intellect and I wonder that their brilliance cannot conceive of the horrifying danger in which their threats places them. It would seem to me their position places them in a situation where they might consider that one Holocaust is enough.
In the Mel Brooks film “Blazing Saddles” there is one scene where the sheriff is threatened with hanging by an angry mob. The sheriff, in self-defense, pulls out his gun and holds it to his head and threatens to commit suicide if the mob tries to hang him and the mob backs off. This is highly comic, but in real life this is frightening insanity.
This is the Masada psychology brought up to date where a group of ancient besieged Jews committed suicide rather than be captured by the Romans. The Israelis, according to reports, have an estimated 200 nuclear warheads at their disposal. I have not heard as to whether they are fission or fusion weapons but either one represents a standing threat to all life on Earth. There are other nations, of course, with many more dangerous nuclear weapons but these nations have been able to restrain their use for many decades and their status in no way compares to the psychological volatility of Israel who maintains, through its consistent aggressive agenda, an extremely delicate balance and strong prejudice to use violence rather than diplomacy to maintain their existence and stability. I have read statements by Israelis that, if the country is threatened by overwhelming force, there would be no hesitation to loose the entire nuclear capability at the world as a kind of apocalyptic revenge. This kind of threat to hold the entire world hostage for its existence is pathological insanity and, since it is not an empty threat, I doubt the world can endure its existence indefinitely. Israel is, after all, a rather small target for a determined atomic power bent on removing this nuisance forever as a threat to all life on Earth. The Jews have a reputation for intellect and I wonder that their brilliance cannot conceive of the horrifying danger in which their threats places them. It would seem to me their position places them in a situation where they might consider that one Holocaust is enough.
Libby,thank you for providing us with this challenging post.
"The Jews have a reputation for intellect and I wonder that their brilliance cannot conceive of the horrifying danger in which their threats places them. It would seem to me their position places them in a situation where they might consider that one Holocaust is enough"
Jan,I wish it were so.
"The Jews have a reputation for intellect and I wonder that their brilliance cannot conceive of the horrifying danger in which their threats places them. It would seem to me their position places them in a situation where they might consider that one Holocaust is enough"
Jan,I wish it were so.
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